[RSM] W3LPL: above normal thru Sunday; QSO? Bouvet

Fri Feb 3 00:59:09 EST 2023

(Some of us have been around long enough to remember the original meaning
of "QSO" -- Art K3KU/VE4VTR)

http://www.sckans.edu/~sireland/radio/q_signals.html

============================================

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 3 Feb 2023 00:41:31 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be above normal through Sunday

Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on Bouvet
Island for every HF band are described in detail at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bGId8CHySE
and available for download at www.voacap.com/dx/bouvet Bouvet sunrise is at
0417Z and sunset is at 1942Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be above normal through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
The February 3rd daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 67.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 135 and is likely remain about the same
through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and three tiny active
regions containing 16 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 180
micro-hemispheres (about the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
Sunday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to east and
southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal through Sunday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be
above normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Sunday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be above normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Sunday.  12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be
above normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from
North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be above
normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index
is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

There is a slight chance through Sunday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation
(TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from
mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through Sunday
of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 and
VK/ZL during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a lesser
chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP
and oblique-TEP via isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66
at: https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

No radio blackouts are expected through Sunday.

Solar wind parameters through late Friday are likely to be mildly enhanced
then improving to mostly nominal through Sunday due to waning coronal hole
high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity through late Friday is likely to be mostly quiet with
a chance of unsettled periods and a slight chance of isolated active
intervals due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects, then
improving to mostly quiet through Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 43 minutes later and day length
is 54 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net