[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Tues/7; links for Bouvet prop

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 6 Feb 2023 01:03:04 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday

Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on Bouvet
Island for every HF band are described in detail at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bGId8CHySE
and available for download at www.voacap.com/dx/bouvet Bouvet sunrise is at
0421Z and sunset is at 1938Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

The February 5th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 84.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 144 and is likely to increase to about
160 on Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium and two tiny active
regions containing 29 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 200
micro-hemispheres (about the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0815Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America
to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be
mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index
is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

There is a slight chance through Tuesday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation
(TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from
mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Tuesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32
and VK/ZL during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a
lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into
both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of brief mild to moderate radio blackouts caused
by X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly to moderately enhanced
through Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream and possible weak CME
effects.

Geomagnetic activity through late Monday is likely to be mostly unsettled
with a chance of isolated active intervals due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects, then quiet to active through late Tuesday with a slight
chance of brief isolated minor storm conditions.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 46 minutes later and day length
is 59 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net