[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thur Friday/10

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 8 Feb 2023 23:40:24 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday

Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on Bouvet
Island for every HF band are described in detail at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bGId8CHySE
and available for download at www.voacap.com/dx/bouvet Bouvet sunrise is at
0428Z and sunset is at 1932Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

The February 8th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 140.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 198 and is likely to remain about the
same on Friday. The sun’s visible disk has three large, three medium and
three tiny active regions containing 63 sunspots with a total sunspot area
of 1290 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0815Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to
east and southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to east and southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be
mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through
Friday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above
120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Friday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation
(TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from
mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through Friday
of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 and
VK/ZL during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a lesser
chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP
and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66
at: https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Mild to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from
strong M-class solar flares are likely through Friday. There is a slight
chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from
X-class solar flares through Friday.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be moderately enhanced on Thursday due
to coronal hole high speed stream and possible weak CME effects declining
to mildly enhanced on Friday due to waning effects.

Geomagnetic activity through late Thursday is likely to be quiet to
unsettled with a chance of active intervals due to coronal hole high speed
stream and possible weak CME effects, then mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled intervals and a chance of isolated active intervals through late
Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 49 minutes later and day length
is 65 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net