[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Sat, a little better on Sunday

Fri Feb 10 09:20:22 EST 2023

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2023 01:27:06 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday
improving to above normal on Sunday

Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on Bouvet
Island for every HF band are described in detail at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bGId8CHySE
and available for download at www.voacap.com/dx/bouvet Bouvet sunrise is at
0432Z and sunset is at 1928Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Saturday and normal on Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
The February 9th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 153.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 215 and is likely to remain about the
same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has three large, three medium
and three tiny active regions containing 60 sunspots with a total sunspot
area of 1290 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the
Earth). https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on Sunday.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0815Z is
likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on Sunday. 40 meter
long path propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia at
about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on
Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on Sunday. 30 meter long
path propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia at about
2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal
on Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
and sunset is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on
Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Saturday and normal on Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Saturday and normal on Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and normal on Sunday. 12 and 10
meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely
to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and geomagnetic
activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Sunday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation
(TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from
mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through Sunday
of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 and
VK/ZL during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a lesser
chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP
and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66
at: https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Mild to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from
strong M-class solar flares are probable through Sunday. There is a slight
chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from
X-class solar flares through Sunday.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced on Friday due to
coronal hole high speed stream and possible weak CME effects declining to
mostly background levels by Sunday due to waning effects.

Geomagnetic activity through late Friday is likely to be quiet to unsettled
with a chance of active intervals due to coronal hole high speed stream and
possible weak CME effects on Friday improving to mostly quiet and a slight
chance of isolated active intervals through late Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 51 minutes later and day length
is 70 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net