[RSM] W3LPL: Geomag storm warning, plus regular forecast thru weekend (not so good)

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2023 01:57:04 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch: 16 and 17 Feb, Moderate
Geomagnetic Storm Watch: 18 FEB

published: Wednesday, February 15, 2023 21:59 UTC

A G1-Minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for 16 and 17 Feb,
followed by a G2-Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch on 18 Feb 2023.



The G1 Watch on 16 Feb is for continuing effects from the CME that passed
by Earth earlier today. G1-minor storm conditions related to this event are
expected to last into the early (UTC) hours of 16 Feb.



Separately, on 15 Feb, a coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery, departing the Sun at approximately 15/0212
UTC. WSA/Enlil analysis indicated that this CME has a likely Earth-directed
component with an anticipated arrival time near mid-to-late day

on 17 Feb (UTC).



G1-Minor conditions are likely on 17 Feb, with G2-Moderate conditions
likely on 18 Feb as the main driver of the CME arrives at Earth.



HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen
as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.). Subsequent
warnings and alerts may be issued as conditions warrant.



Check out this webpage <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/> for other space weather
forecasts, models, and general information.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g1-g2-geomagnetic-storm-watches-issued-16-17-18-feb-2023



============================================================================

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2023 03:03:10 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through mid-day Friday
degrading to below normal by early Saturday improving to mostly normal by
Sunday FT8WW sunrise is at 0151Z and sunset is at 1541Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal until late
Friday, mostly below normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly normal until
early Sunday then normal through late Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal until late
Friday, mostly below normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly normal until
mid-day Sunday then normal through late Sunday.

Propagation crossing auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly
normal until late Friday, below normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly below
normal until early Sunday then mostly normal through late Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

The February 17th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 119.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 163 and is likely to remain about the
same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and
two tiny active regions containing 31 sunspots with a total sunspot area of
1100 micro-hemispheres about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal until late Friday, mostly below
normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly normal until early Sunday then normal
through late Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be below normal late Friday, mostly below normal late
Saturday, then mostly normal late Sunday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0815Z is likely to be normal on
Friday, mostly below normal on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. 40
meter long path propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia
at about 2200Z is likely to be below normal on Friday, mostly below normal
on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal until late Friday, below normal until mid-day Saturday,
mostly below normal until early Sunday then mostly normal through late
Sunday. 30 meter long path propagation from North America to east and
southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be below normal on Friday,
mostly below normal on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Friday, below
normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly below normal until early Sunday then
mostly normal through late Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly below normal late
Friday, below normal early Saturday, mostly below normal late Saturday and
mostly normal on Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
until late Friday, below normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly below normal
until early Sunday then mostly normal through late Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
until late Friday, below normal until mid-day Saturday, mostly below normal
until early Sunday then mostly normal through late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter
long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to
1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday, below normal on Saturday, and
mostly normal on Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index
is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

There is a slight chance through Friday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation
(TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from
mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through Friday
of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 and
VK/ZL during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a lesser
chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP
and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66
at: https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of mild to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by
X-ray radiation from strong M-class solar flares through Sunday,

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately to strongly elevated through
mid-day Sunday due to CME effects slowly waning to mildly elevated through
late Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be active through mid-day Friday,
degrading to minor storm levels through late Friday, further degrading to
moderate storm levels through early Saturday, improving to quiet to active
through early Sunday than quiet to unsettled through late Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 58 minutes later and day length
is 83 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net