[RSM] W3LPL: prop forecast thru Wed/22; FT8WW-to-NA prop info

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2023 01:25:27 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mild degradations at mid-to-high latitudes through Wednesday

FT8WW sunrise is at 0155Z and sunset is at 1536Z. 17 meter short path FT8WW
propagation to North America is favorable from 0300Z to 0500Z. 12 meter
short path propagation to North America is possible from 1200Z to 1400Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web
pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and
times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly
normal with possible below normal intervals through Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

The February 20th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number was 125.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 160 and likely to remain about the same
through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, five medium and
two tiny active regions containing 45 sunspots with a total sunspot area of
1100 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations through
Wednesday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 0815Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations
through Wednesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to
east and southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations through Wednesday. 30
meter long path propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia
at about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild
degradations through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild
degradations through Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mild degradations through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long
path propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z
is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and geomagnetic activity
is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Wednesday of trans-equatorial F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser
chance through Wednesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S.
states to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early
evening in the U.S. There is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at
mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief
isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s
excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of mild R1-class to moderate R2-class daytime radio
blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through
Wednesday, and a slight chance of strong R3-class daytime radio blackouts
caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated due to weakening CME
passage and coronal hole high speed stream effects through Wednesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of a few
isolated periods of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms through Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 63 minutes later and day length
is 90 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net