[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some minor problems thru Friday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 5 Jan 2023 01:36:38 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with minor
geomagnetic storms possible on Thursday and less likely on Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Friday with possible below normal intervals during
local night time hours on Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 151 and is likely to remain about the
same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium and two tiny
active regions containing 36 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 550
micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to
east Asia after about 2130Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 2130Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through
Friday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is about
120 or higher and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

Very long distance 6 meter oblique trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from
North America mostly to CQ Zone 32 is likely to occur infrequently through
early January from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at
the path mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). There is a chance
that more northerly U.S. locations may couple into trans-pacific oblique
TEP via infrequent sporadic-E paths to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s excellent
article beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden
bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares are possible through
Friday due to the large number of active regions on the visible disk.

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated by coronal hole high
speed stream effects through Friday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through
Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Minor geomagnetic
storm conditions are possible on Thursday due to coronal hole high speed
stream and possible weak CME effects. We are in the winter solstice season
when disturbed geomagnetic conditions occur about half as often as during
the spring and fall equinox seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 11 minutes later and day length
is seven minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net