[RSM] W3LPL: Above normal, then back to mostly normal after mid-day Tues

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 9 Jan 2023 00:20:50 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be above normal then mildly
degraded to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be above normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be above normal then mildly
degrading to normal after mid-day Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal then mildly degrading to mostly normal during local night time hours
Tuesday.

Click https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png for today's
latest estimated planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html for N0NBH's current HF
Band Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 184 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large,
three medium and one tiny active regions containing 57 sunspots with a
total sunspot area of 1810 micro-hemispheres (about ten times the surface
area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 2130Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal then mildly degrading during local night time hours
Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 2130Z likely to be above normal then mildly degrading during
local night time hours Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal then mildly degrading during
local night time hours Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be above normal then mildly
degrading during local night time hours Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal then
mildly degrading during local night time hours Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal then
mildly degrading during local night time hours Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter
long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to
1400Z is likely to be above normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be enhanced when the solar flux index is about 120 or higher and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a chance of very long distance 6 meter oblique trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from North America mostly to CQ Zone 32 through early
January from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at the
path mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). There is a slight
chance that more northerly U.S. locations might couple into trans-pacific
oblique TEP via infrequent sporadic-E paths to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s
excellent article beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden
bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares are possible through
Tuesday. There is a also chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by
unpredictable strong X-class solar flares due to two very active regions on
the visible disk.

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels then slightly
enhanced by possible coronal hole high speed stream effects after mid-day
Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet then degrading to mostly
unsettled with a chance of brief active intervals and a slight chance of
minor geomagnetic storm conditions after mid-day Tuesday due to possible
coronal hole high speed stream effects. We are nearing the end of the
winter solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions occur about
half as often as during the spring and fall equinox seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 14 minutes later and day length
is ten minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
for the Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated daily at 1800, 2000 and
2200Z .

Click
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
for today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
hours.

Click
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu
for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated
at 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion  for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 for today's Australian
Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net
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