[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly above normal thru Sunday, Jan 29

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2023 01:08:21 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly above normal through
Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly above
normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal improving to normal by early Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 151 and is likely to decline slightly by
Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has four medium and four tiny active regions
containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 280 micro-hemispheres
(about 1.5 times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by early Sunday.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is
likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by early Sunday. 40 meter
long path propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia at
about 2145Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal improving to normal by early Sunday. 30 meter long path
propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is
likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by Sunday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by
early Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
and sunset is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by early
Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
improving to normal by early Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
improving to normal by early Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation
from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be
mostly normal improving to normal by Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when
the solar flux index is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to
unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a possibility through Sunday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation
(TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from
mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a slight chance through Sunday
of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 during
mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a chance that U.S.
stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP
via possible intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s
excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts
caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar
flares from a few weak solar active regions.
Solar wind parameters are likely to have occasional moderate enhancements
on Friday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually
improving to nominal levels through Sunday due to waning coronal hole high
speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated
active intervals on Friday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream
effects improving to quiet with a slight chance of isolated active
intervals through Sunday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream
effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 35 minutes later and day length
is 41 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful propagation pages for HF DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net