[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly above normal thru Wed; Bouvet prop info

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2023 01:53:10 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly above normal through
Wednesday

Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on Bouvet
Island for every HF band are described in detail at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bGId8CHySE
and available for download at www.voacap.com/dx/bouvet Bouvet sunrise is at
0409Z and Bouvet sunset is at 1950Z. The January 31st Estimated
International Sunspot Number is 81.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be above normal
through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal through Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 136 and is likely remain about the same
through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium and three tiny
active regions containing 15 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 220
micro-hemispheres (slightly larger than the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
Wednesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to east and
southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through Wednesday. 30 meter long path propagation from North
America to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be normal
through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be normal through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to east
Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Wednesday of trans-equatorial F2
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Wednesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone
32 during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a lesser
chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP
and oblique-TEP via possible intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66
at: https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio
blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from
M-class solar flares from a few weak solar active regions and a lesser
chance of isolated strong daytime radio blackouts.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be weakly enhanced through Wednesday
due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with a chance of
unsettled intervals and a slight chance of isolated active intervals
through Wednesday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 39 minutes later and day length
is 46 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net