[RSM] W3LPL: Likely above normal thru Tues

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2023 01:06:08 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be above normal through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be above normal through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 137 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and five tiny
active regions containing 20 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 160
micro-hemispheres (slightly smaller than the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to east and
southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal through Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is likely to be
normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be above normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be above normal through
Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above
120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a chance through Tuesday of trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP)
from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from mid-afternoon
through late evening. There is a slight chance through Tuesday of
oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 during
mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a chance that U.S.
stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP
via possible intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s
excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second) Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts
caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar
flares from a few weak solar active regions.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mostly nominal through Tuesday due
to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet with a chance of unsettled
intervals and a slight chance of isolated active intervals through Tuesday
due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 37 minutes later and day length
is 44 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net