[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Sunday, June 4

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 2 Jun 2023 02:19:32 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal at low and mid latitudes
and mostly normal at high latitudes through Sunday. Mildly degraded
intervals are possible at high latitudes during local nighttime hours
through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local
nighttime hours through Sunday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 69 minutes later and day length
is 160 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today in the F2
region over Canada above 45 degrees north latitude.

The May 31th Estimated International Sunspot Number was 170. Today's Solar
Flux Index (SFI) is 164 and likely to decline slightly through Sunday. The
sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and five tiny active regions
containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1160 micro-hemispheres.
(about six times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares
are expected through Sunday There is a slight chance of a strong radio
blackout caused by an X-class flare through Sunday.

The solar wind is mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second, gradually
increasing to moderately elevated levels of about 500 km/second by late
Friday due to isolated geomagnetic storm conditions caused by coronal hole
high speed steam effects. The solar wind is likely to be mildly enhanced at
about 400 km/second from early Saturday through late Sunday due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active, reaching brief
minor geomagnetic storm conditions late Friday. Unsettled to active
conditions are likely through midday Saturday improving to mostly quiet
with isolated unsettled intervals through late Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal
through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly
to moderately degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to mostly normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North
America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation crossing the
north Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime
MUFs due to reduced daytime free electron density in the F2 region through
mid-September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km and sometimes
more occurs daily in the northern hemisphere from early morning through
evening hours until at least mid-July, but its duration and geographic
extent is sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent article about 6
meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf
There is a slight chance through Sunday of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon through late
evening. There is a slight chance through Sunday of propagation via the
northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states
to equatorial Africa during mid-afternoon.  There is a slight chance
through Sunday of oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late
afternoon and early evening through Sunday. There is a slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via brief geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to
severe geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net