[RSM] W3LPL: Normal to mostly normal through Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

zFrom: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 5 Jun 2023 02:37:16 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal at low and mid latitudes
and mostly normal at high latitudes through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Tuesday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 71 minutes later and day length
is 161 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today in the F2
region over Canada above 45 degrees north latitude.

The June 5th Estimated International Sunspot Number is 139. Today's Solar
Flux Index (SFI) is 168 and likely to decline slightly through Tuesday. The
sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and two tiny active regions
containing 40 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 930 micro-hemispheres
(about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by
M-class solar flares through Tuesday. There is a slight chance of a strong
radio blackout caused by an X-class flare through Tuesday.

The solar wind is mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second, gradually
decreasing to near background levels of about 350 km/second by
early Tuesday as coronal hole high speed steam effects wane.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled with a slight
chance of active conditions through Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly
to moderately degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to mostly normal through Tuesday. 20 meter daytime long distance
propagation is often degraded from June through September by E region and
sporadic-E blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation crossing the
north Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime
MUFs due to reduced daytime free electron density in the F2 region through
mid-September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km and sometimes
more occurs daily in the northern hemisphere from early morning through
evening hours until at least mid-July, but its duration and geographic
extent is sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent article about 6
meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf
There is a slight chance through Tuesday of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon through late
evening. There is a slight chance through Tuesday of propagation via the
northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states
to equatorial Africa during mid-afternoon.  There is a slight chance
through Tuesday of oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late
afternoon and early evening through Tuesday. There is a slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via brief geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to
severe geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at:  http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net