[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe a bit down in the dark thru Friday

Thu Jun 8 14:15:20 EDT 2023

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 8 Jun 2023 02:32:55 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal at all latitudes
with possible mild degradations during local night time hours through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing all latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations during local night time hours through Friday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 72 minutes later and day length
is 165 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today in the F2
region above 45 degrees north latitude.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 165. Today's Solar Flux
Index (SFI) is 167 and likely to remain about the same on Friday. The sun’s
visible disk has two large, five medium and three tiny active regions
containing 77 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1000 micro-hemispheres
(about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts
caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

The solar wind has declined to background levels at about 350 km/second and
is likely to remain about the same through midday Thursday as weak coronal
hole high speed steam effects continue to wane. A weak CME is likely to
pass near Earth at about midday Thursday slightly elevating the solar wind
to about 450 km/second. The solar wind is likely to return to near
background levels by midday Friday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Thursday
degrading to mostly unsettled to active with a slight chance of an isolated
minor geomagnetic storm through early Friday, then returning to mostly
quiet by midday Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly
to moderately degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to mostly normal through Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation
at low and mid latitudes in northern hemisphere is usually degraded during
daylight hours from June through September by E region and sporadic-E
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to
east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through
Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation crossing
the north Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower
daytime MUFs due to reduced daytime free electron density in the F2 region
through mid-September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North
America to western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be
mostly normal through Friday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km and sometimes
more occurs daily in the northern hemisphere from early morning through
evening hours until at least mid-July, but its duration and geographic
extent is both sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent article
about 6 meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf
There is a slight chance through Friday of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon through late
evening. There is a slight chance through Friday of propagation via the
northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states
to equatorial Africa during mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance through
Friday of oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Friday. There is a slight chance that stations in
the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via
brief geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe
geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement.
See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and
mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:
http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

We have entered the solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less
severe and occur about half as often as during the equinox seasons.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be
found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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