[RSM] W3LPL: Normal to mostly normal thru Thur/2; FT8WW prop info

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2023 00:23:00 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Normal propagation is likely at low to mid-latitudes and
mostly normal propagation is likely at high latitudes through Thursday

FT8WW sunrise is at 0207Z and sunset is at 1544Z. 3B7M  sunrise is at 0144Z
and sunset is at 1413Z. 17 meter short path propagation from FT8WW and 3B7M
to North America is favorable from 0300Z to 0500Z. There is a chance of 12
and 10 meter propagation to North America from 1200Z to 1400Z. See OH6BG’s
FT8WW and 3B7M propagation forecast pages here: https://voacap.com/dx/crozet
https://www.voacap.com/dx/3b7m

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
The March 1st daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 80. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 161 and is likely to remain about the same
through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, three medium
and two tiny active regions containing 40 sunspots with a total sunspot
area of 1100 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the
Earth). https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Thursday. 40 meter long path propagation from
North America to southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index
is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

There is a slight chance through Thursday of trans-equatorial F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser
chance through Thursday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S.
states to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early
evening in the U.S. There is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at
mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief
isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s
excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of mild R1-class to moderate R2-class daytime radio
blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through
Thursday, and a slight chance of strong R3-class daytime radio blackouts
caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.

The solar wind is likely to steadily decline from moderate speeds early
Wednesday to near ambient speeds by late Thursday as CME induced high speed
solar wind and coronal hole high speed stream effects steadily wane.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through
Thursday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects steadily wane.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 73 minutes later and day length
is 113 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net