[RSM] W3LPL: Likely normal thru Friday; FT8WW prop info

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 2 Mar 2023 01:50:09 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through Friday

FT8WW sunrise is at 0211Z and sunset is at 1524Z. 3B7M  sunrise is at 0144Z
and sunset is at 1412Z. 17 meter short path propagation from FT8WW and 3B7M
to North America is favorable from 0300Z to 0500Z. There is a chance of 12
and 10 meter propagation to North America from 1200Z to 1400Z. See OH6BG’s
FT8WW and 3B7M propagation forecast pages here: https://voacap.com/dx/crozet
https://www.voacap.com/dx/3b7m

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be normal through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

The March 2nd daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 93. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 162 and is likely to remain about the same
through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, three medium and
three tiny active regions containing 35 sunspots with a total sunspot area
of 1110 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through
Friday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast Asia
at about 2200Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through Friday. 30 meter long path propagation from North
America to southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be normal through
Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely
to be normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to east
Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Friday of trans-equatorial F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser
chance through Friday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states
to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early evening in
the U.S. There is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may
briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals
of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6
meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength greater than 5
nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration,
minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength much stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME (faster
than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of mild R1-class to moderate R2-class daytime radio
blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through
Friday, and a slight chance of strong R3-class daytime radio blackouts
caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.

The solar wind is likely to steadily decline from moderate wind speeds
(about 500 km/second) early Thursday to significantly slower speeds through
Friday as coronal hole high speed stream effects steadily wane.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to remain quiet through Friday with a chance
of brief unsettled intervals and a slight chance of brief active intervals
as coronal hole high speed stream effects steadily wane.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 74 minutes later and day length
is 115 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net