[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe OK for ARRL DX SSB weekend; FT8WW & 3B7M prop info

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2023 02:36:27 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal intervals at high latitudes on Sunday

FT8WW sunrise is at 0212Z and sunset is at 1523Z. 3B7M  sunrise is at 0144Z
and sunset is at 1411Z. 17 meter short path propagation from FT8WW to North
America is favorable from 0300Z to 0500Z. There is a chance of 12 and 10
meter propagation from FT8WW to North America from 1200Z to 1400Z. See
OH6BG’s FT8WW and 3B7M propagation forecast pages here:
https://voacap.com/dx/crozet https://www.voacap.com/dx/3b7m

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.
Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible below normal intervals on Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

The March 3rd daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 115. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 169 and is likely to remain about the same
through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, three medium and
two tiny active regions containing 28 sunspots with a total sunspot area of
1310 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals on
Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0830Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals on
Sunday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast Asia
at about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals on Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals on Sunday. 30
meter long path propagation from North America to southeast Asia at about
2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals on
Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals on Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of
sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals on Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals on Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals on Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes
is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Sunday of trans-equatorial F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser
chance through Sunday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states
to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early evening in
the U.S. There is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may
briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals
of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6
meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 700 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of mild R1-class to moderate R2-class daytime radio
blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through
Sunday, and a slight chance of strong R3-class daytime radio blackouts
caused by X-class solar flares through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to steadily decline to ambient slow speed (less
than 400 km/second) from mid-day Friday through early Saturday then
gradually increasing to about 500 km/second or more through late Sunday as
coronal hole high speed stream effects increase.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet from mid-day Friday through
early Saturday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled
through late Saturday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to
active through late Sunday as coronal hole high speed stream effects
increase. There is slight chance of minor geomagnetic storms on Saturday
and a moderate chance on Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 76 minutes later and day length
is 120 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net