[RSM] W3LPL: Above normal likely thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2023 01:50:27 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Above normal propagation is likely through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid- latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be above normal through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at:
https://www.solarham.net

The March 17th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 108. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 135 and is likely be about the same through
Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and six tiny active regions
containing 14 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 120 micro-hemispheres
(about 60% of the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Radio blackouts are not expected through Sunday.

The solar wind is mildly enhanced at about 450 km/second and is likely to
be decline to background levels from Friday through Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to mostly quiet through Sunday. We are in
the vernal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic activity is more
likely than during most of the year.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be above normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be above normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be above
normal through Sunday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to
southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be above normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal through Sunday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be is likely to
be above normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Sunday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be above normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Sunday

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be above normal through
Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above
120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a chance through Sunday of trans-equatorial F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from early afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Sunday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There
is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple
into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 700 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 88 minutes later and day length
is 157 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be
found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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