[RSM] W3LPL: Likely mostly normal thru Tuesday/21

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 01:21:43 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid- latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.   Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly. VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published
daily at 0045Z at:
https://www.solarham.net

The March 19th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 73. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 143 and is likely be about the same through
Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and three tiny
active regions containing 13 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 450
micro-hemispheres (about twice the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of minor radio blackouts on the sun facing side of the
earth through Tuesday.

The solar wind is mildly enhanced at about 450 km/second and is likely to
remain about the same through Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to mostly unsettled with a chance of
isolated active intervals through Tuesday. We are in the vernal equinox
season when disturbed geomagnetic activity is more likely than during most
of the year.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America
to southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be above normal through
Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be is likely to
be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index
is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

There is a chance through Tuesday of trans-equatorial F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from early afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Tuesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There
is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple
into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 700 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 90 minutes later and day length
is 161 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be
found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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