[NZ4O Spaceweather] NZ4O MF Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2012-19

Thu May 3 06:16:49 PDT 2012

NZ4O MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2012-19

“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams As Well As Shortwave DXers And
Listeners”

Published on Friday May 04, 2012 at 0000 UTC

Valid 0000 UTC Saturday May 05, 2012 through 2359 UTC Friday May 11, 2012

I'm disseminating the propagation forecast one day earlier than normal as I
will be out of town on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted
in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF)
along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic
disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal
absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also
increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption
due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at
energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays.

There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna
polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX contact. As
a medium frequency RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a
perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and
SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed
than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on
the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized
signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or
S9 and W4.

For more information on MF radiowave propagation theory check out
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .

GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND AND 160 METERS-

Note! This forecast is based upon quiet solar, space and geomagnetic weather
conditions. Geomagnetic storming Kp-5> and energetic proton storms >10 MeV
(10+0) can at times render the forecast temporarily inaccurate.

Magnetic Equator-

Low 0-25 degrees

Mid 25-60 degrees

High 60-90 degrees

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair
North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair
South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair

SOUTHERN
East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair To Good
South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair To Good
North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair To Good

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

High Latitude- Poor To Fair
Mid Latitude- Fair
Low Latitude- Poor To Fair

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

High Latitude- Fair
Mid Latitude- Fair To Good
Low Latitude- Fair

HF Propagation Forecast Scale-
Excellent S9+1 Or Better
Good S7-S9
Fair S4-S6
Poor S1-S3
None S0

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to
produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by
the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation forecast
that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and
distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced
permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts
are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to
human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella at tampabay.rr.com

NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast:
http://www.solarcycle24.org
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Dashboard:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm
NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm
NZ4O 160 Meter (MF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm

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