[NZ4O Spaceweather] latest solar cycle prediction

[Thomas F. Giella]

For what it's worth, when the solar cycle 24 forecasts began coming out back 
in 2008, I forecasted that it would be the smallest solar cycle in 100 
years. At the time almost all of the other forecasts were for a large cycle. 
You can see my discussions at http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm  .

A major problem when making solar cycle forecasts is that there is no agreed 
upon scientific standard as to what constitutes the beginning or ending of a 
particular solar cycle. Therefore we don't know until we look in the past.

Here are my solar cycle 24 forecasts. The fact that I produced two forecast 
updates means that I don't know what I'm talking about either.

November 02, 2010, a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 95 in December 
2013.

March 30, 2009 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 100 in July 2013.

February 1, 2008 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 105 in October 
2012.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Retired Meteorologist & Solar Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella at tampabay.rr.com

NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast: 
http://www.solarcycle24.org
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Dashboard: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm
NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm
NZ4O 160 Meter (MF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm


Message: 2
Date: Thu, 03 May 2012 21:49:00 -0500
From: Todd <todftscytj7707 at aol.com>
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
<irca at hard-core-dx.com>
Subject: Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
Message-ID: <rhbcxv2kgd4banl8ju0e0l38.1336099740904 at email.android.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8

Just a curious piece of information from Coast to Coast radio show: They 
fully believe we are in a ongoing low sunspot activity and have believed 
this for several years now.

Todd Skaine
Woodbury, MN
2010, PL 310 or
Toyota radio




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