[NZ4O Spaceweather] Discussion Of Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions

[Thomas F Giella NZ4O]

Published on Monday October 01, 2012 at 1330 UTC. Valid for the next 24 
hours.

1.) DISCUSSION OF SOLAR, SPACE & GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CAN 
IMPACT MF & HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION IN A NEGATIVE MANNER-

A coronal mass ejection (CME) may arrive at earth's geomagnetic field later 
today causing geomagnetic storming that would lower the maximum useable 
frequency (MUF) and negatively impact radio wave propagation conditions on 
10 and 12 meters.

Per the guess cast I made above yesterday morning, the CME arrived early 
this morning UTC and produced a geomagnetic storm peaking at a Kp of 7, 
which is "strong" geomagnetic storming. The storm is now subsiding but could 
continue to bring intermittent unsettled (Kp-3) to active (Kp-4) geomagnetic 
conditions for the remainder of the day.

As of 1300 UTC there are still significant impediments to good radio wave 
propagation on the HF bands of 20-10 meters as far as solar, space and 
geomagnetic weather, as it will take the rest of the day today or more for 
the ionosphere to recover after the strong (Kp-7) geomagnetic storm. Also as 
the excessive number of electrons from the strong (Kp-7) geomagnetic storm 
continue to precipitate down our planets magnetic field lines through the 
mid latitudes and then settling into the equatorial ring current, mid and 
low latitudes will see a reduction in the MUF as is occurring at high 
latitudes.

Also the daily sunspot number needs to be higher than the present 95, as the 
higher the sunspot number (100 & >) (150 & > best) the more ultraviolet 
light available to increase ionization in the F/F2 layer, for more 
consistent east-west radio wave propagation openings on 12 and 10 meters.

\Also on the medium frequency (MF) band there exists the normal absorption 
of RF signals in the D layer due to incoming cosmic rays and hard x-rays. 
Also the background x-ray flux is running in the C range so there is some 
additional absorption of RF signals in the D layer.


73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o at tampabay.rr.com
NZ4O Amateur Radio & SWL Autobiography: http://www.nz4o.com
NZ4O MF/HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast: http://www.solarcycle24.org