[NZ4O Spaceweather] DISCUSSION OF SOLAR SPACE & GEOMAGNETIC WX CONDX

[Thomas F Giella NZ4O]

1.) DISCUSSION OF SOLAR, SPACE & GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CAN 
IMPACT MF & HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION IN A NEGATIVE MANNER-
For the 14th day in a row the daily sunspot number has languished below 100. 
It's looking more and more like my solar cycle 24 forecast is going to be 
correct, it being the smallest in the past 100 years. Though my SSN forecast 
of 95 may be to high.

Here are my forecasts:

Newest published on November 02, 2010, a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak 
of 95 in December 2013.

Previous forecasts:

March 30, 2009 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 100 in July 2013.

February 1, 2008 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 105 in October 
2012.

There are no significant impediments to good radio wave propagation on the 
HF bands, other than the daily sunspot number needs to be higher than the 
present 74, as the higher the sunspot number (100 & >, 150 > best) the more 
ultraviolet light available to increase ionization in the F/F2 layer, for 
more consistent east-west radio wave propagation openings on 12 and 10 
meters. Also with the solar wind running as high as 500 k/s RF signal 
absorption is occurring on 20-10 meters via the E layer.

Also on the medium frequency (MF) bands there exists the normal absorption 
of RF signals in the D layer due to incoming cosmic rays and hard x-rays. 
Also the background x-ray flux is running in the B range so there is some 
additional absorption of RF signals in the D layer.



73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o at tampabay.rr.com

NZ4O Amateur Radio & SWL Autobiography: http://www.nz4o.com
NZ4O MF/HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast: http://www.solarcycle24.org