[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Discussion Of Daily Solar Space And Geomagnetic Weather

Thomas F Giella W4HM w4hm at tampabay.rr.com
Mon Feb 18 07:17:18 EST 2013


For Sunday February 16, 2013

Solar activity is moderate as far as the emergence of the number of new 
sunspot groups. Currently there are 5 new un-numbered sunspot groups and 5 
existing numbered sunspot groups.

Solar activity is high as far as the number of new solar flares, 12 
occurred. The largest solar flare in magnitude was a moderate in size M1.9, 
which occurred at approximately N12E20 and associated with sunspot group 
#11675. Medium in size M class solar flares are possible. My forecast for 
medium in size M class solar flares verified.

The daily solar flux index (SFI) has been at or above 100 for 18 consecutive 
days, currently at 107.2.

The daily sunspot number (SSN) has languished below 100 for 33 consecutive 
days, currently (NOAA) at 74.

The geomagnetic field was other than quiet for 2 consecutive days with the 
Kp (planetary) index in the 3 range, unsettled geomagnetic conditions. As 
collected by Potsdam Germany WDC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 
12222332. As collected by NOAA/SWPC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 
12223232. The unsettled geomagnetic conditions were in association with 
geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole #555.

The Dst ranged between -1 and -37.

Via SOHO the maximum and minimum solar wind values were 311-383.

Via NOAA the maximum background x-ray solar flux value was B2.3.

For the latest solar, space & geomagnetic weather data go to 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm . For an explanation of how the above 
indices affect MF, HF and VHF radio wave propagation go to 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .

To subscribe to the W4HM Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast 
Subscription Service go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm or 
http://www.solarcycle24.org .

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, W4HM
Lakeland, FL, USA
w4hm at tampabay.rr.com

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