[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Discussion Of Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather

[Thomas F Giella W4HM]

W4HM DISCUSSION OF DAILY SOLAR SPACE AND GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER-

For Sunday February 24, 2013

Solar activity is moderate as far as the emergence of the number of new 
sunspot groups. Currently there are 6 new un-numbered sunspot groups and 4 
existing numbered sunspot groups.

Solar activity is moderate as far as the number of solar flares, 7 occurred. 
The largest solar flare in magnitude was a small in size C2.6, which 
occurred at approximately N07W88 and associated with sunspot group #11678.

The daily solar flux index (SFI) has been below 100 for 2 consecutive days, 
currently (NOAA) at 95.1.

The daily sunspot number (SSN) has been below 100 for 5 consecutive days, 
currently (NOAA) at 25.

The daily SSN is notably low considering we are at or just past solar cycle 
24 maximum. Solar cycle 24 continues to languish as a very weak one, per my 
forecast first issued in February 01, 2008 at 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm .

The geomagnetic field has been quiet for 1 consecutive day with the Kp 
(planetary) index in the 0-2 range, which is quiet geomagnetic conditions.

As collected by Potsdam Germany WDC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 
11010101. As collected by NOAA/SWPC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 
11111111.

The Dst ranged between 0 and -23.

Via SOHO and sollen.info the maximum and minimum solar wind values were 
282-346.

Via NOAA the maximum background x-ray solar flux value was B2.9.

For the latest solar, space & geomagnetic weather data go to 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm . For an explanation of how the above 
indices affect MF, HF and VHF radio wave propagation go to 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .

To subscribe to the W4HM Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast 
Subscription Service go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm or 
http://www.solarcycle24.org .



GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL 
MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal 
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices 
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2013 by Thomas F. 
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is 
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 11 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to 
see the best global medium frequency radio wave propagation possible.

The simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave 
propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the 
majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one 
refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as 
far as 3200 miles.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best.

3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable 
formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days 
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer 
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, 
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora 
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF 
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery 
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A 
positive number is best.

11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending 
towards zero.

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL 
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal 
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices 
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2013 by Thomas F. 
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is 
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation 
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days 
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer 
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days 
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, 
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora 
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF 
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery 
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A 
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer 
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the 
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending 
towards zero.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, W4HM
Lakeland, FL, USA
w4hm at tampabay.rr.com

W4HM Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Subscription Service: 
http://www.solarcycle24.org
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http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm
W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm
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http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm
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http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm
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