[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #85

[Thomas F. Giella]

For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather observation, discussion and HF radio 
wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety 
and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation 
forecast can be found in my Twitter account at 
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm and in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

My daily solar, space & geomagnetic weather observations and discussions as 
well as my daily HF radio wave propagation forecasts can also be found at

http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather and in my Facebook 
account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

It's a NO SPAM "opt" in email type group, so you have to sign up by using an 
existing email address and creating a password.

I'm also posting excerpts some of my daily solar, space and geomagnetic 
weather observations, discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in 
my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm .

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#85 Issued on Monday April 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,


40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,


20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,


15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,


12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-


80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,


40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,


20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,


15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,


12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.


Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Sunday April 9, 2017-

Solar activity was low.

Earth's geomagnetic field was quiet.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 72.1 74.4 73.5.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 13.

In 2017 officially there were 28 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.

Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, observations daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

Newly risen sunspot group #12650 was located near N08E69 with a simple beta 
magnetic signature.

A newly risen but as of yet unnumbered sunspot group was located near 
N14E75.


There were no small in size earth facing C class or larger solar flares.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.

In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.

An earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruption occurred.

An approximate 14 degree filament eruption was observed centered near
N16E35 in H-alpha imagery beginning at 09/2025 UTC. This event was
likely associated with a CME off the east limb observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 10/0212 UTC. The CME is not expected to have a
geoeffective component.


No earth directed day side radio black outs occurred.

The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at 
active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of

4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1.

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between

32 and 3,

which was at minor geomagnetic storming conditions to quiet geomagnetic 
conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The daily averaged background x-ray flux was at B2.79.

The daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was at
+1.2 nT north.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Dst ranged between

-39 and -15 nT.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between

571 and 442 km/s

and was directly connected to the fast moving solar wind stream emanating 
from earth facing (CH) coronal hole #800 (#795).

There was a recurrent northern hemisphere earth facing (CH) coronal hole 
#800 (#795). It was shrinking in size but was producing (Kp-5) minor 
geomagnetic storming conditions. This coronal hole will set around the west 
limb of the sun in another 1-2 days.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.