[W4HM Spaceweather] Spaceweather Digest, Vol 43, Issue 1

Tue May 2 17:52:20 EDT 2017

Thomas,
I really do not see how everybody is so hyped up about man caused climate change when the 
Sun has so much of a direct affect on the weather and radio propagation. NIST has stated 
that the Sun's temps have risen over 100 degrees K just at the surface and about 1.5 degrees
here. That translates to a vast increase in the Earth's outgassing of methane - a greenhouse
gas. Man may have some very small effect on greenhouse gas emission, but isn't the sole cause.
The Earth, our home, has gone through these cycles since the dawn of time, yet nobody will
believe that. The Sun is a variable period star - don't these brainiacs know that? If Algore 
said the sky was falling on us, everybody would believe that mankind did it. The so called 
Earth scientists belch out some wild theory and everyone just laps it up. They do not 
investigate it on their own - so illiterate and lazy they are today. Excess carbon in our 
atmosphere will just make the trees and plankton grow better and faster. Farmers may have 
to change crops to suite the new climate, but Man has been doing that since recorded history
began. What is new there? Conditions change, and Man adapts very easily - its what we do.
Where is the catastrophe? I don't see it.
Best Regards,
Fred - W4FJF.

---- spaceweather-request at contesting.com wrote: 

=============
Send Spaceweather mailing list submissions to
	spaceweather at contesting.com

To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit
	http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to
	spaceweather-request at contesting.com

You can reach the person managing the list at
	spaceweather-owner at contesting.com

When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific
than "Re: Contents of Spaceweather digest..."

Today's Topics:

   1. W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #121
      (Thomas F. Giella)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Message: 1
Date: Mon, 1 May 2017 12:39:48 -0400
From: "Thomas F. Giella" <thomasfgiella at gmail.com>
To: "DXLD" <dxld at yahoogroups.com>,	"Space Weather @COL"
	<spaceweather at contesting.com>
Subject: [W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
	Forecast #121
Message-ID: <B1DE0F4C13934EF39714A08CEB48AE79 at ThomasPC>
Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="utf-8";
	reply-type=original

Greetings to my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

If you find this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather 
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur 
and SWL radio activities feel free to drop me a line and letting me know 
that

thomasfgiella at gmail.com .

Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave 
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with my "not for profit" daily solar, space and 
geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast can be 
found in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm and in my 
Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

My ?not for profit? daily solar, space & geomagnetic weather discussions as 
well as my daily HF radio wave propagation forecasts can also be found at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather and in my Facebook 
account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

It's a NO SPAM "opt" in email type group, so you have to sign up by using an 
existing email address and creating a password.

I'm also posting excerpts some of my ?not for profit? daily solar, space and 
geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in 
my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm .

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#121 Issued on Monday May 1, 2017 at 1630 UTC

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

HF radio wave propagation conditions continue to improve.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at day,

12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at day.

10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor to fair at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at day,

12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at day.

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the NSACap HF radio wave 
propagation prediction software and some daily analog tweaking.

The hamateur radio PSK31 RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and 
? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ? 
wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF signal levels received are based on 100 watts and 
? wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM RF signal levels are based on 100,000 
watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array antenna.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable 
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Sunday April 30, 2017-

Solar activity was very low.

Earth's geomagnetic field was at a quiet level.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 77.9 77.4 76.9.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 33.

In 2017 officially there were 30 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.

Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, observations daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.

In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunspot group #12653 was located near S09W45 with a magnetically simple 
alpha magnetic signature.

Sunspot group #12654 was located near N11 E27 with a magnetically simple 
alpha magnetic signature.

Unofficially there were no earth facing but as of yet unnumbered sunspot 
groups.

No earth facing C class or larger solar flares occurred.

There may have been an earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).

Sunspot group #12653 produced a long-duration B3 flare on April 30, 2017 at 
0012 UTC and an associated (CME) coronal mass ejection was observed in C2 
coronagraph imagery beginning on April 30, 2017 at 0236 UTC.

Analysis of this event had been completed and showed that the (CME) coronal 
mass ejection had a partially (geoeffective) directly earth aimed component 
that could impact earth?s geomagnetic field in a negative manner some time 
beginning on Wednesday May 3, 2017.

https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c3.gif

No earth directed day side radio black outs occurred.

One earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruption occurred.

Analysis of this event had been underway in order to determine if the (CME) 
coronal mass ejection had an (geoeffective) directly earth aimed component.

The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at 
quiet geomagnetic conditions of

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2.

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between

7 and 3,

which was at quiet geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged energetic proton flux was at a background level 
below 10 MeV.

The 24 hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at B9.96.

The 24 hour period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic 
magnetic field was at

-1.3  nT south.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) 
ranged between

+5 and -23 nT.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between

405 and 342 km/s.

There were no earth facing coronal holes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL 
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However the solar, space and geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF 
propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and 
geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ? 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave 
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied 

------------------------------

Subject: Digest Footer

_______________________________________________
Spaceweather mailing list
Spaceweather at contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather

------------------------------

End of Spaceweather Digest, Vol 43, Issue 1
*******************************************