[W4HM Spaceweather] October 20, 2017 W4HM Daily Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion
Thomas F. Giella
thomasfgiella at gmail.com
Fri Oct 20 11:05:05 EDT 2017
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Published on Friday October 20, 2017 at 1500 UTC
Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions on Thursday October 19, 2017-
Solar activity had been very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field had been at an active to unsettled level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers had been 73.3 73.4 74.2.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) had been at 0.
This was the 4th day in a row with a daily SSN of 0
and 11 of the last 12 days had seen a daily SSN of 0.
In 2017 officially there were
66 days
with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase. Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.
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Officially there had been no earth facing sunspot group (SSG).
There had been no returning (recurrent) sunspot group.
There had been no small in size C class solar flare or larger.
There had been no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been no partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been no directly (geoeffective) or partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME) D layer ionosphere involved high latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0).
The high latitude absorption via earths over ionized D layer is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring current.
There had been no earth aimed solar flare related x-ray day side D layer ionosphere involved solar fade out (SFO).
There had been no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) or partially earth aimed collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of
3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index had been at an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of
3 3 4 3 3 4 2 2.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet 3- unsettled 4- active 5- minor geomagnetic storming 6- moderate 7- strong 8- severe 9- extreme 10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) had ranged between
15 and 6,
which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet 8-15- unsettled 16-29- active 30-49- minor geomagnetic storm 50-99- major 100-400- severe >401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux had been at B3.45.
The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field had been at approximately
-8 nT south.
The larger the negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) had ranged between
-28 and -9 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged had ranged between
506 and 344 km/s.
There was 1 recurrent small in size trans equatorial earth facing coronal hole (CH) #830 (#825).
There was 1 recurrent small in size northern hemisphere earth facing coronal hole (CH) #831 (#826).
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities, educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.
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