[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion
Thomas F. Giella
thomasfgiella at gmail.com
Tue Sep 19 11:41:40 EDT 2017
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Published on Tuesday September 19, 2017 at 1600 UTC
Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On Monday September 18, 2017-
Solar activity had been low.
Earth's geomagnetic field had been at an active geomagnetic level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers had been 70.5 71.2 71.3.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) had been 12.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase. Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.
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Officially there had been 1 earth facing sun spot group (SSG).
Sunspot group (SSG) #12680 was located near N08W39 with a simple alpha magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare.
There had been 3 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups (SSG) near
N18W18,
S11E19,
N08E49.
There had been no small in size C class solar flare or larger.
There had been no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been no partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been no directly or partially earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0).
The high latitude absorption via earths over ionized D layer is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring current.
There had been no earth aimed (geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO).
There had been no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index had been at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet 3- unsettled 4- active 5- minor geomagnetic storming 6- moderate 7- strong 8- severe 9- extreme 10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) had ranged between
27 and 9,
which was at active to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet 8-15- unsettled 16-29- active 30-49- minor geomagnetic storm 50-99- major 100-400- severe >401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux had been at A6.93.
The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field had been at approximately
-4 nT.
The larger the negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) had ranged between
-31 and -12 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged had ranged between
717 and 514 km/s.
The solar wind speed had been under the influence of the below mentioned coronal hole (CH).
There was 1 recurrent medium in size earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #824 (#820).
Its associated high speed solar (HSS) wind stream had been attached to earth’s geomagnetic field and impacting earth’s ionosphere in a negative manner in the form of active (Kp-4) geomagnetic conditions.
There was 1 recurrent small in size earth facing southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #825 (#821).
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities, educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.
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