[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-44

[Thomas F. Giella]

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the 
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation 
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on 
the planet.

I'm a retired space and terrestrial meteorologist and one of the few on the 
planet with advanced education & 44 years of forecasting experience in both 
disciplines.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA
© 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your 
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me 
know that at

thomasfgiella at gmail.com

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave 
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and 
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation 
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and at

http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather

but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by contesting on 
line (COL), so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and 
creating a password.

And last but not least I also post solar, space and geomagnetic weather 
goings on and some images in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm .

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#44 Issued Tuesday February 13, 2018 at 1530 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 78.0 78.6 78.4

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 26.

In 2018 there had been 18 days with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There was one earth facing sunspot group numbered #12699 located near S07W25 
with a beta magnetic signature capable of releasing small C class solar 
flares.

As #12699 is currently geo effective (earth facing) any possible future 
solar flares will be able to impact the day side earth ionosphere in a 
negative manner in the form of absorption of RF signals as they pass through 
the D layer (solar fade out) (polar cap absorption).

The following was permanently borrowed from http://www.spaceweatherlive.com

……….Sunspot region 2699 has been transiting the earth-facing solar disk the 
past few days but was relatively quiet. However, today just past midnight, 
this sunspot region started to erupt with a long duration C-class solar 
flare. The solar flare started at 00:15 UTC and peaked at 01:35 UTC with a 
maximum measured X-ray flux of C1.5. Not a mighty impressive value but the 
long duration gave away that this event might have been eruptive.
Following the eruption, coronal dimming was observed which is a classic sign 
that some ejecta might have been released into space. Considering the 
location of sunspot region 2699 any ejecta would've likely have an 
earth-directed component. That brings us to our next tool: the SOHO/LASCO 
coronagraph imagery.
Well, the animation below says it all. The C1.5 solar flare launched an 
asymmetrical full halo CME which is likely to impact Earth in a few days 
from now. Most of the ejecta seems to have a trajectory slightly west of our 
planet but the full halo outline is clear and an impact at our planet is to 
be expected.
The coronal mass ejection isn't very bright nor is it fast but its a 
pleasant surprise so close to solar minimum. Note that the word solar 
minimum is a link. It links to an article from the SIDC about the current 
solar cycle, do read it as its very interesting! We might be closer to solar 
minimum than we thought!
But back on topic, we clock the speed of this coronal mass ejection at a 
fairly slow 500km/s. This gives us a transit time of about 3.5 days 
calculated with the Drag-Based model. We expect an impact time around 18:00 
UTC (+/- 6 hours) on Thursday, 15 February. A minor G1 geomagnetic storm 
could develop after the coronal mass ejection arrives providing the 
north-south direction of the IMF (Bz) becomes favorable……….

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a 
quiet geomagnetic condition of
0 1 2 1 0 0 2 1.
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Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition trend February 13, 2018- steady

HF radio wave propagation condition trend February 14, 2018- deteriorating

HF radio wave propagation condition trend February 15, 2018- deteriorated

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- very good at night and poor 
to fair at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- very good at night and 
fair at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- very 
poor at night and good at day,

21000-21850 kHz- very poor at night and fair to good at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- very poor at night and fair at day,

28000-29700 kHz- very poor at night and poor at day.

Excellent- S9+10 or >
Very Good- S9 +1-9
Good- S8-9
Fair- S4-7
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

During the northern hemisphere winter season the higher HF bands of 10-20 
meters (11-19 meters) close sooner due to less sun light illuminating the 
ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency 
(MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the 
ionosphere is lower in height and more concentrated.

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300- fair at night and poor at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- fair at night and fair 
at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168, kHz-

fair at night and poor to fair at day,

21000-21850 kHz- poor at night and fair at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- poor at night and poor at day,

28000-29700 kHz- very poor at night and poor at day.

Excellent- S9+10 or >
Very Good- S9 +1-9
Good- S8-9
Fair- S4-7
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Keep in mind that almost daily during the southern hemisphere summer season 
you will find that the 10 (11) meter bands will open via short north-south 
and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple 
sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation 
paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south 
propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation 
(TEP).

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This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP 
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the 
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general 
public.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the 
SIGINT_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA 
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check 
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers 
around on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if 
and when necessary.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts 
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts 
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts 
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array 
antenna.

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Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable 
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL 
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

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Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW 
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this 
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave 
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.