[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-76

Sat Mar 17 11:22:54 EDT 2018

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the 
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation 
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on 
the planet.

I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist and one of the 
few on the planet with advanced education & 44 years of forecasting 
experience in both disciplines.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA © 
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your 
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me 
know that at

thomasfgiella at gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from other fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as 
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in 
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave 
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and 
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation 
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and at

http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather

but without supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by contesting on 
line (COL), so you have to sign up by using an existing email address and 
creating a password.

And last but not least I also post solar, space and geomagnetic weather 
goings on and some images in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm

#76 Issued Saturday March 17, 2018 at 1530 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.5 68.5 68.4

There had been 23 days in a row with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index 
number (DSFI) below 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 1 day in a row with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 41 days with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

There had been no newly emerged or risen earth facing sunspot group.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an 
active to unsettled geomagnetic condition of 3 4 3 2 3 4 3 3.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 537 & 
422 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition trend March 17, 2018- deteriorating

HF radio wave propagation condition trend March 18, 2018- deteriorating

Steady state means that HF radio wave propagation conditions are not 
improving or deteriorating.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

We are now entering the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave 
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are 
most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- fair to good at night and 
poor at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- fair at night and fair 
at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- poor at 
night and fair at day,

21000-21850 kHz- very poor at night and fair at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- very poor at night and poor at day,

28000-29700 kHz- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Excellent- S9+10 or >
Very Good- S9 +1-9
Good- S8-9
Fair- S4-7
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

We are now entering the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave 
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are 
most evenly balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- fair to good at night and 
poor at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- fair at night and fair 
at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- poor at 
night and fair at day,

21000-21850 kHz- very poor at night and fair at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- very poor at night and poor at day,

28000-29700 kHz- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Excellent- S9+10 or >
Very Good- S9 +1-9
Good- S8-9
Fair- S4-7
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP 
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the 
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general 
public.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the 
SIGINT_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA 
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check 
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers 
around on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if 
and when necessary. And last but not least I check data from ionsonde's 
scattered around the planet.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts 
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts 
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts 
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array 
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable 
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a 
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency 
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to 
geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E 
layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest 
usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, 
galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 
and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a 
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a 
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and 
also due to geomagnetic storms of Kp-5 & >. Also D layer RF signal 
absorption due to elevated (>B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a 
lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL 
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW 
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this 
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave 
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.