[TOEC] [Fwd: NW7US Propagation Prediction : CQ WW SSB Contest, 30,
31 October 2004]
Jan Erik Holm
sm2ekm at telia.com
Tue Oct 26 01:31:36 EDT 2004
Om nu ingen sett detta.
Subject: [CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Prediction : CQ WW SSB Contest, 30,
31 October 2004
> During the last weekend of this month (the CQ WW SSB contest weekend, 30
> and 31 October 2004), we should experience good conditions. While we won't
> see very high sunspot counts, we do have enough activity to liven up the
> HF bands.
> The 10.7-cm flux will be averaging between 100 and 130. This will mean
> that 20 meters will be the string, primary contest band, with 15 meters a
> significant player during the daylight hours. On the 10 meter band, there
> will be a sprinkling of openings, but this band will not give you that
> much of an extra edge. The edge will come from moving from 20 on down.
> The lower bands (40 through 160) will be more stable, with the seasonal
> decrease in noise, as well as the stablizing due to more quiet geomagnetic
> Speaking of geomagnetic conditions, here's what's to be expected during
> the contest weekend. The planetary A index (Ap) is forecast to be between
> 5 and 10 - not too shabby. The peak planetary K index (Kp) is expected to
> stay around 3 or less. So, this is not a perfect quiet condition.
> Never-the-less, there shouldn't be significant degradation of the level of
> Between now (25 October 2004) and the weekend, we will see an elevation of
> the geomagnetic activity, perhaps to storm levels. However, I do expect
> that to subside in time for the contest. Since the influence if the
> current coronal hole, and the arrival of the CME from a recent flare, will
> pass by October 28, we should see things stable enough for a long enough
> period prior to the start date. However, if the disturbance continued
> into 28 October, or even the next day, then the ionosphere may not have
> enough time to stablize well enough for a good start to the contest.
> My Last Minute Forecast ( http://hfradio.org/lastminute_propagation.html )
> shows a High-Normal for 30 October, and Above-Normal for 31 October.
> Barring any major flaring and coronal mass ejections, this should be an
> exciting and productive contest weekend.
> I'll create one more update just prior to the CQ WW SSB weekend. And, I'll
> be posting my predictions for the CQ WW CW weekend, too. Good luck,
> 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
> : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
> : Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
> : Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
> : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
> : Website, software, database design - http://newwebmakers.com/ :
> : Washington State Army MARS, State Army MARS Director - AAA0WA :
> : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, AR Lighthouse Society 144 :
> CQ-Contest mailing list
> CQ-Contest at contesting.com
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