[TOEC] [Fwd: NW7US Propagation Prediction : CQ WW SSB Contest, 30, 31 October 2004]

[Jan Erik Holm]

Om nu ingen sett detta.

/EKM
-------------------------------------

Subject: [CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Prediction : CQ WW SSB Contest, 30,
31 October 2004


> During the last weekend of this month (the CQ WW SSB contest weekend, 30 
> and 31 October 2004), we should experience good conditions. While we won't 
> see very high sunspot counts, we do have enough activity to liven up the 
> HF bands.
>
> The 10.7-cm flux will be averaging between 100 and 130. This will mean 
> that 20 meters will be the string, primary contest band, with 15 meters a 
> significant player during the daylight hours.  On the 10 meter band, there 
> will be a sprinkling of openings, but this band will not give you that 
> much of an extra edge.  The edge will come from moving from 20 on down. 
> The lower bands (40 through 160) will be more stable, with the seasonal 
> decrease in noise, as well as the stablizing due to more quiet geomagnetic 
> conditions.
>
> Speaking of geomagnetic conditions, here's what's to be expected during 
> the contest weekend.  The planetary A index (Ap) is forecast to be between 
> 5 and 10 - not too shabby.  The peak planetary K index (Kp) is expected to 
> stay around 3 or less.  So, this is not a perfect quiet condition. 
> Never-the-less, there shouldn't be significant degradation of the level of 
> ionization.
>
> Between now (25 October 2004) and the weekend, we will see an elevation of 
> the geomagnetic activity, perhaps to storm levels.  However, I do expect 
> that to subside in time for the contest.  Since the influence if the 
> current coronal hole, and the arrival of the CME from a recent flare, will 
> pass by October 28, we should see things stable enough for a long enough 
> period prior to the start date.  However, if the disturbance continued 
> into 28 October, or even the next day, then the ionosphere may not have 
> enough time to stablize well enough for a good start to the contest.
>
> My Last Minute Forecast ( http://hfradio.org/lastminute_propagation.html ) 
> shows a High-Normal for 30 October, and Above-Normal for 31 October. 
> Barring any major flaring and coronal mass ejections, this should be an 
> exciting and productive contest weekend.
>
> I'll create one more update just prior to the CQ WW SSB weekend. And, I'll 
> be posting my predictions for the CQ WW CW weekend, too. Good luck, 
> DXer's!
>
> 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
>
> : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
> : Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
> : Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
> : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
> : Website, software, database design - http://newwebmakers.com/ :
> : Washington State Army MARS, State Army MARS Director - AAA0WA :
> : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57,  AR Lighthouse Society 144 :
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