Topband: US Navy and Solar Cycle 23

[Earl W Cunningham]

The following was QSP'd to me by K6NDV who received it from the DX
reflector.  I thought it might be of interest to Topbanders.
 
--------- Begin forwarded message ----------
 
Jim Reid, KH7M <jreid@aloha.net> wrote:
 
 Aloha,
 
 How can these Navy guys be so smart??
 
 I have had a look at my ARRL Handbook,  1992 edition.  On page
 22-5, in the Propagation chapter,  a graph is re-printed,  and
 attributed to the Naval Ocean Systems Center  propagation
 "prediction"  made around 1985!
 
 For this time within Cycle 23,  the Navy chart shows a predicted
 (smoothed?)  sunspot number of only 50 to 60 for all of 1999,
 and a max of about 80 in early  2000 !!!??  Today,  the actual
 reported  sunspot number is standing at 51!!  See  URL:
 
     http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/realtime.html
 
 Further,  the implication of the Navy statistical prediction is that
 Cycle 23 will be very low,  perhaps the lowest SS and flux
 counts since before 1940!
 
 Oh shucks,  and as it drags along,  I was hoping for a dramatic upturn!
 The NOSC 1985 chart seems to show that even the next cycle,
 peaking around 2011 or so will also be lower than any of the past
 to 1940;  and the 2023 or so peak will be just a bit better,  maybe
 the about equal of 1969.
 
 Well,  hope their statistical projections are inaccurate,  but sure
 seem on track so far into Cycle 23!
 
 Anyone know how the Navy came up with their prediction?
 
 73,  Jim,  KH7M
 On the Garden Island of Kauai
 


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