Topband: 160m band condx 2018-21

[VE6WZ_Steve]

Hello fellow low-band DXers….

Here is a 160m propagation report and trans-polar EU QSO summary from VE6WZ during the last 3 winter seasons.
On a few charts I have consolidated Solar indices (SSN and Ap) as well as the solar wind data with my EU CW QSOs since 2018.
I have been regularly QRV almost every night on the band, so the database has over 4,000 EU CW QSOs since 2018.

This report is focused on the trans-polar EU path since this is most effected by the geo-magnetic activity.  All trans-equitorial VK-ZL and Asia DX QSOs are excluded from the database.
Indeed there are many factors that influence low-band DX conditions, but I think these results strongly confirm the fairly simplistic correlation between elevated geo-mag activity and muted trans-polar propagation.
The VE6WZ QTH is on the Eastern slopes of the Rocky mountains, so this report is unique to the EU path being very polar. Most of EU is at 20-30 deg AZ from here and directly through the AU doughnut.  From my QTH, working EU is somewhat similar to the EC working JA.

I had another fun DX season on 160m this winter.  I was QRV calling CQ on 160m most nights with the TX array and RX on EU.
This past season on 160m from Aug till May I had 1,448 Europe CW QSOs, with 341 unique callsigns.  As always, it seems like mostly the same guys every night.
Some nights I worked between 30 and up to 75 EU when the band was hopping.  Certainly NOT “everyone” has moved to FT-8. There is still a lot of CW activity on 160m.
I only worked 68 DXCC on 160, whereas last year I worked 114 DXCC, and in 2018 worked 104.  The lack of DX-peditions due to COVID muted the activity for sure.

I plotted my nightly EU QSO count on an EXCEL chart vs the Ap index for the last three winter DX seasons.  For the Europe trans-polar path, there sure is a good correlation with lower geo-mag activity and increased QSO count.
This winter-spring the band slammed shut at the end of January.  There was just too much solar wind blasting the ionosphere to sustain a polar path. You can see that clearly on the chart, and there is a solid correlation with few QSOs on every Ap peak:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ddh830UKbvgSwekJHjYfquo_WrfNs3g2/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ddh830UKbvgSwekJHjYfquo_WrfNs3g2/view?usp=sharing>

Here is a plot comparing monthly EU QSOs with the solar wind from this past winter.  The sudden shut-down of the band in mid January is very clear.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ftfvzfN1McWLdGJLinerJb-BQPhdMgOQ/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ftfvzfN1McWLdGJLinerJb-BQPhdMgOQ/view?usp=sharing>

And here is a chart I built plotting the daily Ap values vs sunspot numbers from 2007 till today.  The 2008-10 "big 160m opening" are pretty obvious with the decreasing Ap.
Without doubt, the “BIG 2008-10” lowband opening was epic with 160m CW band sometimes sounding like 20m!
The last three seasons although the band has been open, the openings have been more tentative and weak. It has been a real test of patience riding the QSB wave to complete the QSOs.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tRV8DwsqY7rJLvHGxKW1bs15fr474Asu/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tRV8DwsqY7rJLvHGxKW1bs15fr474Asu/view?usp=sharing>

And here is a plot from 1932 with daily Ap vs SSN.  Usually the Ap (geo-mag activity) dips just at the start of the next solar cycle.
Perhaps the curtain is falling on our low-band conditions?  Maybe one more good-fair season?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xYpCtqTrj9DbdpDLcCgu79h3sqtjD5b6/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xYpCtqTrj9DbdpDLcCgu79h3sqtjD5b6/view?usp=sharing>

An finally here is the “Top 40" list of the most QRV European CW champions…the VE6WZ repeat QSO list for the last 3 years:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/17AX35IKPDDmeKVWxxPDPr3I3twiBovoq/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/17AX35IKPDDmeKVWxxPDPr3I3twiBovoq/view?usp=sharing>

I have updated my geo-mag propagation page to include a Monthly Average Ap plot to compliment the Solar flux chart.  This replaces the Ap chart from NOAA that disappeared last year.
All of my solar data has been sourced from GPZ Potsdam.
https://www.qsl.net/ve6wz/geomag.html <https://www.qsl.net/ve6wz/geomag.html>

73, de steve ve6wz.