Topband: 160m band condx 2018-21

[David Raymond]

In my comparatively short time on the band (since 1988) nothing compares 
to the trans-polar activity of the 2008-2009 season where much of NA was 
working Zones 17, 18, and 19 via direct path with loud signals both 
morning  and night (our time), with quite a few of the DX stations 
running low power.  It was fabulous and brought some memorable QSOs for 
me  including working Nelson/4S7NE through a huge and raucous NA pileup 
(including many of the big gun EC stations) with Nelson running just 
100w at the time.  I can't even imagine having that QSO with the 
conditions of the past few years (in spite of the low SFI).  As Steve 
says, there is still CW activity. . .but, alas, it pales in comparison 
to what it was even a decade ago. . . .trans-polar and otherwise.

73. . . Dave, W0FLS

On 6/28/2021 12:06 PM, VE6WZ_Steve wrote:
> Hello fellow low-band DXers….
>
> Here is a 160m propagation report and trans-polar EU QSO summary from VE6WZ during the last 3 winter seasons.
> On a few charts I have consolidated Solar indices (SSN and Ap) as well as the solar wind data with my EU CW QSOs since 2018.
> I have been regularly QRV almost every night on the band, so the database has over 4,000 EU CW QSOs since 2018.
>
> This report is focused on the trans-polar EU path since this is most effected by the geo-magnetic activity.  All trans-equitorial VK-ZL and Asia DX QSOs are excluded from the database.
> Indeed there are many factors that influence low-band DX conditions, but I think these results strongly confirm the fairly simplistic correlation between elevated geo-mag activity and muted trans-polar propagation.
> The VE6WZ QTH is on the Eastern slopes of the Rocky mountains, so this report is unique to the EU path being very polar. Most of EU is at 20-30 deg AZ from here and directly through the AU doughnut.  From my QTH, working EU is somewhat similar to the EC working JA.
>
> I had another fun DX season on 160m this winter.  I was QRV calling CQ on 160m most nights with the TX array and RX on EU.
> This past season on 160m from Aug till May I had 1,448 Europe CW QSOs, with 341 unique callsigns.  As always, it seems like mostly the same guys every night.
> Some nights I worked between 30 and up to 75 EU when the band was hopping.  Certainly NOT “everyone” has moved to FT-8. There is still a lot of CW activity on 160m.
> I only worked 68 DXCC on 160, whereas last year I worked 114 DXCC, and in 2018 worked 104.  The lack of DX-peditions due to COVID muted the activity for sure.
>
> I plotted my nightly EU QSO count on an EXCEL chart vs the Ap index for the last three winter DX seasons.  For the Europe trans-polar path, there sure is a good correlation with lower geo-mag activity and increased QSO count.
> This winter-spring the band slammed shut at the end of January.  There was just too much solar wind blasting the ionosphere to sustain a polar path. You can see that clearly on the chart, and there is a solid correlation with few QSOs on every Ap peak:
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ddh830UKbvgSwekJHjYfquo_WrfNs3g2/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ddh830UKbvgSwekJHjYfquo_WrfNs3g2/view?usp=sharing>
>
> Here is a plot comparing monthly EU QSOs with the solar wind from this past winter.  The sudden shut-down of the band in mid January is very clear.
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ftfvzfN1McWLdGJLinerJb-BQPhdMgOQ/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ftfvzfN1McWLdGJLinerJb-BQPhdMgOQ/view?usp=sharing>
>
> And here is a chart I built plotting the daily Ap values vs sunspot numbers from 2007 till today.  The 2008-10 "big 160m opening" are pretty obvious with the decreasing Ap.
> Without doubt, the “BIG 2008-10” lowband opening was epic with 160m CW band sometimes sounding like 20m!
> The last three seasons although the band has been open, the openings have been more tentative and weak. It has been a real test of patience riding the QSB wave to complete the QSOs.
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tRV8DwsqY7rJLvHGxKW1bs15fr474Asu/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tRV8DwsqY7rJLvHGxKW1bs15fr474Asu/view?usp=sharing>
>
> And here is a plot from 1932 with daily Ap vs SSN.  Usually the Ap (geo-mag activity) dips just at the start of the next solar cycle.
> Perhaps the curtain is falling on our low-band conditions?  Maybe one more good-fair season?
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xYpCtqTrj9DbdpDLcCgu79h3sqtjD5b6/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xYpCtqTrj9DbdpDLcCgu79h3sqtjD5b6/view?usp=sharing>
>
> An finally here is the “Top 40" list of the most QRV European CW champions…the VE6WZ repeat QSO list for the last 3 years:
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/17AX35IKPDDmeKVWxxPDPr3I3twiBovoq/view?usp=sharing <https://drive.google.com/file/d/17AX35IKPDDmeKVWxxPDPr3I3twiBovoq/view?usp=sharing>
>
> I have updated my geo-mag propagation page to include a Monthly Average Ap plot to compliment the Solar flux chart.  This replaces the Ap chart from NOAA that disappeared last year.
> All of my solar data has been sourced from GPZ Potsdam.
> https://www.qsl.net/ve6wz/geomag.html <https://www.qsl.net/ve6wz/geomag.html>
>
> 73, de steve ve6wz.
> _________________
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