[UK-CONTEST] IARU Contest.

[Dave Sergeant]

On 13 Jul 2009 at 12:20, brian coyne wrote:

> >>Are conditions really this dire?...G3YMC.
>  
> Yes Dave, they really are and there is only one word to describe anyone
> attempting QRP and that is 'gutsy'

Well if BIG stations like the one you were at last weekend Brian also 
agree they were dire, then they really are dire...

There has been discussion both here and over on the CDXC reflector 
getting excited about last week's sunspot group. It is true that spot 
group 1024 was the biggest sunspot group so far in cycle 24 and the 
longest lasting one. But we should not put too much into actual sunspot 
numbers, it was still a pretty small spot and did not contribute much 
in the way of solar flux increase apart from a small bit of flare 
activity. The way spot numbers are derived often masks the real issues, 
as some bloke somewhere counts the slightest specks and treats them as 
a spot.

What is more important is the solar flux figure. I knew this had been 
at astronomic low levels for absolutely ages and I was wondering when 
the flux was last above 90. There is a nice chart of solar flux for the 
whole of cycle 24 over at http://www.solarcycle24.com/flux.htm and it 
makes grim reading. It has never been over 90 since January 2008, there 
was a short burst to 89 in March 2008, but otherwise it has been below 
75 all the way back to April 2008 and the monthly average has never 
exceeded 73 at any time. (this chart does not include the figures for 
June).

I see this morning the k index has risen to 4, the flux stuck on 67, 
not a sunspot in sight, and the bands sound dead.

Yes things are dire...

73 Dave G3YMC

http://www.davesergeant.com