[VHFcontesting] Does the East have an advantage if one removes microwave contacts?

[James Duffey]

Gene - You wrote:

	At least for the June contest, the east coast is at a serious DISADVANTAGE.
	Es is much better from the midwest and the southwest. In fact were the ARRL
	VHF contests not all microwave contests, the east coast could only be
	COMPETITIVE one year in five in June, a year when Es is poor. Likewise about
	once every 5 years there is midwestern tropo that never crosses the
	Appalachian Mountains. During that year the east coast will not win unless
	they manufacture contacts on the microwaves.

It appears that a look at the standings show that the June Es advantage that some of the other parts of the country have over the East brings up the rest of the country to be competitive with the East, not put the East at a disadvantage. When it comes to the standings year in and year out, the East does well. The microwave contacts factor can be eliminated by looking at the limited multi scores only. The results for the East are certainly not as bleak as you paint them. 
________________________________________________________________________________
Geographic distribution of top ten in the Limited Multi-op category for June ARRL
________________________________________________________________________________
Year	East 	Others  First Place 	 Notes
_____________________________________________________________
2009	7	3	Other (IL)	 Typical Propagation?
2008	5	5	Other (STX)	 Good Es
2007	7	3	East  (WPA)      Poor Es
2006	7	3	Other (IL)	 Good Es
2005	6	4	Other (IL)
2004	7	3	East  (WV)
2003	5	5	Other (IL)
2002	8	2	East  (WV)

The data is harder to extract from the ARRL pages for years before 2002, so I did not go back further. 

I draw the conclusion from this data that the East is competitive year in and year out, good Es or not, and although is not a shoe-in to win the category year after year, competes well for it. For first place, that is winning, there is a 3/5 disadvantage for the East coast over the past 8 June contests, but overall, there is a 52/28 advantage for the East in top ten finishes in the Limited Multi-op category. I would hardly call this a serious disadvantage, certainly not the one year in five you quote. And although the East doesn't win every year, I would hardly call taking 5 or more of the top 10 places in this category year after year, regardless of propagation conditions, a serious disadvantage. 

I only used the Limited Multi category to eliminate the east's capability to "manufacture contacts on microwave". I realize that this might skew the results a bit, but I think that the overall results are similar, except that the East in the form of W2SZ/1 or K8GP, is in first place year after year. Striking in all this, at least to me, is the absence of a strong west coast presence in any category other than rover. But that is fodder for another cannon.

I am not complaining about geographic advantages, nor lobbying for leveling the playing field, nor do I want to start a thread about those topics. But if we are going to talk about these issues, we can do so using available data. One can argue about the interpretation of the data, but not the data itself. 

Anyway, I look forward to your webinar and really want to know how to be more competitive in a location that has a low density of VHF contesters. I rove, which helps a lot, but that clearly is not the answer for everyone. It isn't even a complete answer for me. - Duffey 
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KK6MC
James Duffey
Cedar Crest NM