[Propagation] SIDC Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 17 1335 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50117
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jan 2005, 1247UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jan 2005 until 19 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 141
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 084
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 017

COMMENT: Both full halo CMEs have arrived. The first one (associated
with the M8.6 flare of Jan 15 from sunspot group 05, NOAA 0720) arrived
around 9:30UT on Jan 16. Active to minor storm conditions were the
result. The second full hale CME associated with the X2.6 flare of Jan
15 from the same group, arrived this morning, Jan 17 around 07:15UT. The
estimated K_p index reached already the value of 7. If B_z turns
negative, indices of 9 can be expected. Another big flare peaked today
at 09:52 at the value of X3.8. The proton fluxes increased. The
> 50MeV-curve passed once again the threshold, the >10MeV is still above
the threshold level.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 094
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 145
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 015

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
16  2155  2203 2222 N13W16 M2.4 1N    54                            05 0720
17  0310  0321 0332        M2.6                                     05 0720
17  0838  0952 0959        X3.8                                     05 0720

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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