[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced
several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at
15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output
that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps.
There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this
event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing
little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721
(S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be high
to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton
event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the
X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux
observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was high.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the
next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two
expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The
proton event is expected to continue in progress.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/80/75
PCAF       in progress

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 145
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  011/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  050/060-030/030-030/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           50/50/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/10
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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