[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 720 (N13E10)
produced an M1.8/Sf flare at 14/1411Z and an M1.5 flare at 14/1757Z.
Region 718 (S05W06) produced an M1.0 flare at 14/1606Z.  Region 720
has increased in area to 1540 millionths and is a beta delta
magnetic class.  Region 718 has also increased in area to 250
millionths.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 720 is capable of producing multiple
M-class events and possibly an X-class event.  Region 718 has also
shown the capability of producing M-class events.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods due to prolonged periods of southward Bz.  Solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased to approximately 560 km/s during the reporting
period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 130
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/008-005/008-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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