[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Though very low, two
events of note occurred. The first was a prolonged B8 flare at
05/0522Z from Region 715 (N04W33). This event had an associated
faint full halo CME. The second event was a large 30 degree filament
eruption from near N01E14. This solar event also resulted in a full
halo CME with an impressive post-CME arcade on SXI and EIT imagery.
Most of the ejecta associated with this CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed. A third faint halo CME was also observed on LASCO
imagery on 04/1254Z. This CME was likely associated with the C7
flare in Region 715 on 04/1113Z. Region 715, a small beta group in
decay, contains the only sunspots on the visible disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 715.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed began the period near 750 km/s, but gradually
declined to near 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The current high
speed solar wind stream is expected to gradually decline through 06
January. Three different CMEs over the past two days may cause
occasional storm periods.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 088
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  015/020-015/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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