[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  There has been a steady
stream of B-class flares with a single C1.0 that occurred 08 Jan at
1957Z.  Region 718 (S06E66) remains steady with a low probability
for flare activity.  Region 719 (S09E82) was newly numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Isolated C-class flare activity is possible from the
regions near the southeast limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels.
Disturbances in the geomagnetic field early on 08 Jan have been
associated with solar wind transients and interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuations.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  The solar wind transients
should abate by the end of 08 Jan, and have little impact on the
geomagnetic field for 09 through 11 Jan.

III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 089
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  090/090/085
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  021/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  022/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  012/020-005/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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