[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13W44)
continued to flare; however, the largest event in the past 24 hours
was an M4/2n at 18/1551 UTC. Although the region remains large and
magnetically complex, further sunspot restructuring and decay is
evident since yesterday. New Region 724 (S12W07) emerged on the
disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720, although diminishing in complexity,
still has sufficient potential for another major solar event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress with a
start time of 16/0210 UTC and a peak flux of 5040 pfu observed at
17/1750 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event also remains in
progress with a start time of 17/1215 UTC and a 28 pfu peak flux
observed at 17/1700 UTC. GOES spacecraft electron sensors and ACE
SWEPAM instruments remain affected by the energetic proton event.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at active to severe storm levels for the next 24
to 48 hours. The arrival of the CME associated with the X3 flare on
17 January has not yet been observed but is expected to contribute
to geomagnetic activity over the next 12 to 24 hours. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by early on 19 January,
barring a new major flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to remain in progress through late 19 to early 20 January.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    30/20/10
Proton     80/75/50
PCAF       in progress

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 124
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  120/110/100
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  027/063
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  040/080
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  030/075-020/030-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           60/50/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/50
Minor storm           70/60/30
Major-severe storm    20/15/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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