[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.  All
three spotted active regions were responsible for the low level
B-class flare activity reported throughout the period.  Region 727
(S09E38) was numbered today and is undergoing rapid growth in
penumbral coverage.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Continued growth in Region 727 may lead to
C-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 095
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  006/008-005/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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