[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M1 x-ray event at
0151 UTC, apparently from Region 720 which is now beyond the west
limb. Solar activity and background levels have declined
significantly during the past 12 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for another M-class flare from Region 720 during
the next 12 hours (through 24/1200 UTC). Activity should be very low
to low for the remainder of the forecast period (24/1200 UTC through
26/2359 UTC).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels for most of
the period. Solar wind data indicate the presence of a high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
3 days (24-26 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 096
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  023/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  015/015-012/015-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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