[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 727
(S09W02) continues to trend towards a slow and steady decay.  No new
regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 January.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 29 January with minor to major storming possible.
Periods of active to minor storm levels are possible on 30 January
from the continued effects of the anticipated high speed stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 087
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  000/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  004/015-018/030-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/30
Minor storm           01/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           10/40/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/15
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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