[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels. Large Region 720
(N13W03) produced three major flares this period, beginning with an
X1/1b flare at 15/0043Z. There was no CME associated with this
X-class flare. An impulsive M8 flare was observed at 15/0431Z, and
at 15/0638Z, the region produced the most significant event of the
period, a long duration M8 flare. This event had associated intense
radio emission including a 160,000 sfu burst on 410 MHz and moderate
to strong centimetric bursts including a 3000 sfu Tenflare. Type II
(1300 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed, and the
energetic protons (>10 MeV) began to rise soon after the flare
maximum. SOHO/LASCO imagery revealed a fast full halo coronal mass
ejection. Region 720 is a large and magnetically complex sunspot
group with white light area coverage exceeding 1600 millionths.
Strong shear along an extended east-west inversion line in this
region was the focal point for the major flare activity.  Region 718
(S07W21) produced an M3 flare at 15/1423Z with an associated 420 sfu
Tenflare and CME off the southwest limb.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Region 720 has potential for M and
X-class flares. An isolated M-class flare is also possible from
Region 718.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm periods
with isolated major storm levels at high latitudes. A gradual rise
in the solar wind speed began early in the period, rising to a peak
speed near 700 km/s, before gradually declining to near 550 km/s.
The IMF Bz was predominantly southward during the first half of the
period, which accounted for the most disturbed conditions. A greater
than 10 MeV proton enhancement began soon after today's long
duration M8 flare. The protons did not exceed the 10 pfu threshold,
and remain elevated. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels. Solar wind
remains elevated at near 500 Km/s which may produce isolated active
periods early on 16 January. A CME associated with today's long
duration M8 flare is expected to impact the geomagnetic field late
on 16 January into 17 January. Major to severe storm periods are
possible during this disturbance. Barring another Earth-directed
CME, the geomagnetic field will likely return to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods on 18 January.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 145
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  035/040-050/060-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/50/30
Minor storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    15/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/40
Minor storm           30/35/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/10
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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