[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 16 1247 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50116
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jan 2005, 1223UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Jan 2005 until 18 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 043
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 055
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 017

COMMENT: 2 full halo CMEs are detected. The first one, associated with the 
M8.6
flare from sunspot group 05 (NOAA 0720) peaking at 06:38UT, Jan 15 was 
already
mentioned yesterday. The second full halo CME was visible at 23:06 in
LASCO-images and is associated with an X2.6 flare from the same group 
peaking at
23:02. Both CMEs are formally associated with those flares because only with
those flares a type II outburst was seen. Both halo CMEs are considered to 
be
geoeffective. ACE data showed recently a changing in several physical 
quantities
(around 10:30UT): higher density, decreasing temperature, high solar wind 
speed,
increased total interplanetary magnetic field. These are signatures of an 
ICME
passing ACE: possibly the first one arrived. The second one has still to 
come
(later today, early tomorrow). A major/severe (K >= 6/7) storm is possible,
depending on the orientation of the magnetic field carried by the plasma 
cloud.
Both times, the proton fluxes increased. Early this morning (Jan 16), the
threshold was passed (>10MeV). The >50MeV curve is likely to pass also the
threshold.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 145
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 023

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
15  0409  0416 0422 N11E08 M1.3 2N       III/2                      05 0720
15  0426  0431 0436 N14E06 M8.4 2N                                  05 0720
15  0554  0638 0717 N11E06 M8.6 SF  3000 IV/2,II/2                  05 0720 
fast full halo CME
15  1141  1148 1150 N12E04 M1.2 SF                                  05 0720
15  1408  1423 1439 S08W11 M3.2 SF   420 III/3                      03 0718
15  2201  2208 2216 N14W09 M1.0 SF                                  05 0720
15  2225  2302 2331 N14W08 X2.6 3B       II/2                       05 0720 
full halo CME

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




--
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.300 / Virus Database: 265.6.13 - Release Date: 1/16/2005

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation