[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 18 1256 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50118
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jan 2005, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Jan 2005 until 20 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 067
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 119
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 019

COMMENT: A third full halo CME was detected. The plasma ejection is
associated with the X3.8 flare peaking at 09:52UT on Jan 17. The
(median) velocity is determined by CACTus to be 1567 km/s which is 300
to 400 km/s faster then the two CMEs (associated with the M8.6 and X2.6
flares) which arrived on Jan 16 and Jan 17. The arrival of the
shock front is expected for the second half of Jan 18, early Jan 19. A
severe storm is possible. An extreme proton event is still going on. The
SWEPAM instrument onboard of ACE is still contaminated. Only the >100
MeV curve is beneath the threshold.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 112
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 138
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 055

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
18  1125  1132 1159        M1.6

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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