[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 12 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50112
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jan 2005, 1242UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Jan 2005 until 14 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 011

COMMENT: Since about 02:00UT today Jan. 12, the Earth entered a high speed
stream probably originating from the coronal hole extension now located West 
of
solar central meridian. The ACE spacecraft now records a wind speed of 
620km/s,
with the IMF Bz component fluctuating around 0. This transition induced 
active
to moderate storm conditions for a few hours, mainly between 02:00 and 
04:00UT.

As the interplanetary magnetic field is now declining, we expect mostly
unsettled to active conditions, with possible temporary minor storm 
conditions,
over the next 24 hours. Active region #04 (NOAA718) has produced a few C 
flares
over the last UT day. More C flares with a low chance of an isolated M flare 
can
be expected, mainly from that region. Note that SOHO/EIT images indicate the
imminent appearance of a new active region at the SE limb.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 047
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 016

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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